How Many Shia Muslims Are There in the World? Population by Country

How many Shia Muslims are there in the world? The exact number is not known, but a widely cited estimate from Pew Research Center put the global Shia Muslim population at 154 million to 200 million in 2009. That was approximately 10% to 13% of Muslims worldwide at the time.

Today, the number may be higher because the global Muslim population has grown. However, no newer comprehensive global count of Shia Muslims was identified in the sources reviewed for this article. Therefore, the 2009 estimate should not be presented as an exact figure for 2026.

In this guide, you will learn what the available research tells us, which countries have the largest Shia populations, why estimates differ, and why it is difficult to count Shia Muslims accurately.

In One Minute: Shia Muslim Population Worldwide

• Global population: Pew Research Center estimated 154 million to 200 million Shia Muslims in 2009.
• Percentage of Muslims: Approximately 10% to 13% in that report.
• Countries with the largest Shia populations: Iran, Pakistan, India, and Iraq were among the countries with the largest estimated populations.
• Is there an exact number for 2026? No comprehensive, up-to-date global count was identified in the sources reviewed.
• Why do estimates differ? Many national censuses do not distinguish between Sunni and Shia Muslims, and researchers use different methods and definitions.

The most important point is that a population estimate is not the same as an exact count. Understanding that difference helps explain why different websites publish different numbers.

How Many Shia Muslims Are There in the World?

The most widely cited global estimate comes from a report published by Pew Research Center on October 7, 2009, titled Mapping the Global Muslim Population.

The report estimated that there were between 154 million and 200 million Shia Muslims worldwide, representing approximately 10% to 13% of the global Muslim population at that time.

The researchers did not simply count Shia Muslims through a worldwide census. They examined demographic research, consulted experts, and reviewed available population estimates.

You can read the original report here:

"Pew Research Center: Mapping the Global Muslim Population"

Does this mean there are only 154 million to 200 million Shia Muslims today?

No. These figures describe an estimate made in 2009, not a current count.

In a report published in June 2025, Pew Research Center estimated that the worldwide Muslim population had reached approximately 2.02 billion in 2020, up from about 1.68 billion in 2010.

However, that newer report does not provide an updated global count of Shia Muslims separately from Sunni Muslims.

It would therefore be misleading to treat the 2009 estimate as the exact population in 2026—or to claim that a new global Shia population figure has been confirmed simply because the overall Muslim population has grown.

Source: "Pew Research Center: How the Global Religious Landscape Changed From 2010 to 2020"

What Percentage of Muslims Are Shia?

According to Pew Research Center's 2009 report, Shia Muslims made up approximately 10% to 13% of Muslims worldwide.

The same report estimated that the overwhelming majority of Muslims were Sunni.

These percentages are useful for understanding the broad demographic picture, but they should be dated correctly. They are historical estimates, not a newly measured global Sunni-Shia breakdown for 2026.

Why is this distinction important?

Imagine that a school had 1,000 students in 2009, and 120 belonged to a particular group. If the school later grew to 2,000 students, you could not automatically conclude that the group had doubled to 240 students. You would need updated information about the group's share of the student population.

The same principle applies to religious demographics. Knowing that the Muslim population has grown does not, by itself, tell us precisely how much the Shia population has grown.

Shia Population by Country

Iran, Pakistan, India, and Iraq are among the countries with the largest Shia Muslim populations.

The following table presents estimates published in Pew Research Center's 2009 report. These figures are useful for historical comparison, but they must not be mistaken for current population counts.

Source: "Pew Research Center's original report and country estimates"

Let's look more closely at some of these countries and why their numbers are difficult to establish.

1. Iran

Iran has one of the world's largest Shia populations and is the country most closely associated with Twelver Shia Islam.

Pew's 2009 report estimated that Iran had approximately 66 million to 70 million Shia Muslims at that time.

That number is historical. Iran's population has changed since then, so a current estimate would require newer demographic data and a clearly defined method.

2. Pakistan

Pakistan is another major center of Shia Muslim communities.

Pew estimated the Shia population at 17 million to 26 million in its 2009 report.

One difficulty is that Pakistan's national census does not provide a comprehensive breakdown of the population into Sunni and Shia Muslims. Consequently, estimates of Pakistan's Shia population often rely on other sources and methods.

The range matters: 17 million and 26 million are substantially different figures. Reporting only one number without explaining its source can create a false impression of precision.

3. Iraq

Iraq has one of the world's largest Shia communities and is home to major Shia religious centers, including Najaf and Karbala.

Pew's 2009 estimate placed Iraq's Shia population at 19 million to 22 million.

That figure should be understood in its historical context rather than treated as a current count. A reliable modern estimate would need to account for population growth, migration, displacement, and the quality of available religious-demographic data.

4. India

India has a large and diverse Muslim population, including Shia communities.

Pew's 2009 report estimated India's Shia population at 16 million to 24 million.

However, India's Muslim population includes different religious traditions and communities, and national population figures do not automatically tell us how many people identify as Shia.

This is one reason why country-level estimates should be accompanied by their sources and limitations.

5. Other countries with significant Shia populations

Shia communities also live in countries such as Turkey, Yemen, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon.

Their sizes and religious identities vary. Some countries have relatively clear information about certain communities, while others have limited or conflicting estimates.

For example, the 2009 Pew report estimated between 5 million and 7 million Shia Muslims in Azerbaijan and between 8 million and 10 million in Yemen.

These are historical estimates, not verified 2026 totals.

It is also important to distinguish between the percentage of a country's total population that is Shia and the percentage of its Muslim population that is Shia. Those two measurements are not interchangeable.

Why Is It Difficult to Count Shia Muslims Exactly?

You might wonder why researchers cannot simply add together the Shia populations of every country.

The problem is that many countries do not collect the necessary information, and available estimates are not always based on the same methods.

Here are the main reasons.

1. Many censuses do not distinguish between Sunni and Shia Muslims

A census may record how many people are Muslim without asking whether they identify as Sunni or Shia.

When that information is missing, researchers must estimate the religious composition using other sources.

Pew Research Center explained this problem in its methodology for Sunni-Shia estimates.

Read more: "Pew Research Center's Methodology for Sunni-Shia Estimates"

2. Different sources produce different estimates

Researchers may use national surveys, academic studies, demographic databases, expert assessments, or earlier estimates.

These sources do not always agree.

Consider Pakistan: if one source estimates 17 million Shia Muslims and another estimates 26 million, the difference is 9 million people.

Choosing one number without explaining the disagreement would hide an important limitation in the evidence.

3. Not every source defines the population in the same way

Some estimates focus on particular Shia traditions, while others use a broader classification.

For example, researchers may distinguish between Twelver Shias, Ismailis, and Zaydis. Some broad demographic classifications also discuss communities such as Alevis and Alawites, whose religious identities and classification require care.

If two studies count different groups, their totals may not be directly comparable.

This does not mean that every community should automatically be included in every Shia population estimate. It means that the definition used by each source should be checked before comparing its numbers with another study.

4. Population estimates become outdated

Religious populations change through births, deaths, migration, and changes in how people identify themselves.

An estimate from 2009 can remain useful as a historical reference, but it cannot automatically serve as an exact count in 2026.

Even a recent report may rely on older data for a particular religious subgroup. The publication year and the data year are not always the same.

5. Researchers cannot always measure uncertainty precisely

Pew's methodology explains that the available secondary-source data were limited. As a result, the researchers generally presented ranges rather than claiming exact figures.

A range such as 154 million to 200 million is not a promise that the true number has been established with a precise statistical margin of error. It communicates uncertainty in the available estimates.

That distinction is important whenever population statistics are used to make claims about religious communities.

Why Do Different Websites Give Different Numbers?

You may find one website reporting 200 million Shia Muslims, another suggesting 200 million to 250 million, and another publishing an even higher figure.

There are several possible explanations.

For example, a page titled “Shia Population by Country 2026” may display figures that were originally estimated in 2009. The title alone does not prove that the data were updated.

This is why it is better to check the original source and the date of the underlying estimate than to compare website headlines alone.

A useful rule is simple: when two websites disagree, look for the original research behind each number before deciding which estimate is more reliable.

Are Shia Muslims Growing in Number?

The worldwide Muslim population grew substantially between 2010 and 2020.

According to Pew Research Center's 2025 analysis, the number of Muslims worldwide increased from approximately 1.68 billion in 2010 to 2.02 billion in 2020.

The report identifies factors such as age structure and fertility as important contributors to Muslim population growth.

However, these findings describe the overall Muslim population. They do not establish an exact growth rate for Shia Muslims separately.

To determine how the global Shia population has changed, researchers would need sufficiently reliable information about Shia populations in different countries at multiple points in time.

Without comparable data, it would be misleading to apply the growth rate of all Muslims directly to Shia Muslims and present the result as an established fact.

Source: "Pew Research Center's analysis of Muslim population change"

What Do These Numbers Tell Us About Shia Muslims?

Population statistics can help us understand the geographic distribution of Shia Muslim communities, but they tell us only part of the story.

Shia Muslims live across the Middle East, South Asia, Central Asia, Europe, North America, and other regions. Their communities differ in language, culture, history, and religious practice.

Some countries have large Shia majorities, while others have smaller Shia communities living alongside Sunni Muslims and people of other faiths.

The figures also remind us that a religious community is not defined solely by its size. Historical experiences, religious scholarship, institutions, and local traditions all contribute to how communities develop.

If you want to understand Shia Islam beyond population figures, you can continue with our beginner's guide to Shia Islam and explore its beliefs, history, and religious traditions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Final Answer: How Many Shia Muslims Are There Worldwide?

The best-known global estimate identified in this research is 154 million to 200 million Shia Muslims, according to Pew Research Center's 2009 report.

The true number in 2026 may be higher, but the sources reviewed do not establish a precise, comprehensive current total. The worldwide Muslim population has grown since 2009, yet that fact alone cannot determine the current Shia population.

The most responsible answer is therefore not to claim an exact number that the available evidence cannot support. It is to explain the best-known estimate, identify its date, compare country-level information carefully, and make the limits of the evidence clear.

That approach gives readers something more useful than a single number: a trustworthy understanding of what is known about the global Shia Muslim population—and what remains uncertain.

Sources and Further Reading

1. "Pew Research Center — Mapping the Global Muslim Population"
2. "Pew Research Center — Methodology for Sunni-Shia Estimates"
3. "Pew Research Center — How the Global Religious Landscape Changed From 2010 to 2020"
4. "Pew Research Center — Muslim Population Change"
5. "Pew Research Center — Original Country-Level Shia Estimates (PDF)"